Claim LD01-SL-C15 (v1.0)

In nationally representative US surveys from late 2024, nearly 40% of adults aged 18–64 used generative AI; 27% of workers used it for work two years after ChatGPT’s release, against 25% using computers at work in 1984, three years after the IBM PC, while only 1%–5% of all work hours were assisted by it.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: A claim that generative AI is diffusing faster in depth, or a claim about productivity
Source (field 6, as printed): Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)
Source type (field 7): WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
Institutional position: Independent academic (Vanderbilt University, Harvard Kennedy School) and central-bank economist (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, writing in a personal capacity); survey partly funded by the Walmart Foundation
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-10-16
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD01-SL-C15--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)” → SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025); class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD01-SL-C15	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In nationally representative US surveys from late 2024, nearly 40% of adults aged 18–64 used generative AI; 27% of workers used it for work two years after ChatGPT’s release, against 25% using computers at work in 1984, three years after the IBM PC, while only 1%–5% of all work hours were assisted by it.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B — Evidence that could tell the accounts apart	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)	source_ids: SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966
7	SOURCE TYPE	Academic working paper	classes: WORKING_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic (Vanderbilt University, Harvard Kennedy School) and central-bank economist (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, writing in a personal capacity); survey partly funded by the Walmart Foundation	—
9	SCOPE	United States, adults aged 18–64; August and November 2024 survey waves; historical comparisons with PCs and the internet	—
10	DESIGN	Online survey designed to mirror the Current Population Survey, compared with historical government surveys of computer and internet use	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Real-Time Population Survey waves (pooled N = 9,742); Current Population Survey supplements for PCs and the internet	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Generative AI tools in general	—
13	COMPARATOR	Personal computers and the internet, timed from each technology’s first mass-market product	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Work adoption about as fast as PCs, overall adoption faster than PCs or the internet; 1%–5% of work hours assisted; self-reported time savings equal to 1.4% of all work hours	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Speed and intensity of generative AI adoption in the US	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A claim that generative AI is diffusing faster in depth, or a claim about productivity	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Read in the February 2025 revision and the September 2024 original; both versions compare overall adoption with PCs and the internet (39.5% against 20% in September 2024, 39% against 20% in February 2025) and work adoption with PCs at work (28% against 25% in September 2024, 27% against 25% in February 2025), and the revision leads with the work comparison; the revision also reports 26% of employed respondents using it for work in August and November 2024 and 23% in the previous week; the launch dates chosen drive the comparison; adoption means any use in the reference period; time savings are self-reported; a working paper, not peer-reviewed	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Read as slow diffusion: LD01-SL-C03; predicted slow diffusion: LD01-SL-C01	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Adoption differs by age, education and occupation	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-01, T4, D2	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Measures of intensity or firm integration that rise as fast as individual adoption	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-16	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D2 (DOMAIN)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-01 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 a7ed49078308b9ab0db9bd8a99f13eb740fe30f77df24910b076bab4a183d8b6.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 15 — LD01-SL-C15” SHA-256 318a5999a807b73993b46d280fe0a9c57b79da3ce409ef5bce6dadf9718eb46b; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C15--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 15 — LD01-SL-C15 cites "Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)".