Claim LD01-SL-C15 (v1.0)
In nationally representative US surveys from late 2024, nearly 40% of adults aged 18–64 used generative AI; 27% of workers used it for work two years after ChatGPT’s release, against 25% using computers at work in 1984, three years after the IBM PC, while only 1%–5% of all work hours were assisted by it.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- A claim that generative AI is diffusing faster in depth, or a claim about productivity
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
- Institutional position
- Independent academic (Vanderbilt University, Harvard Kennedy School) and central-bank economist (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, writing in a personal capacity); survey partly funded by the Walmart Foundation
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-16
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD01-SL-C15.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)” → SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025); class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD01-SL-C15 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | In nationally representative US surveys from late 2024, nearly 40% of adults aged 18–64 used generative AI; 27% of workers used it for work two years after ChatGPT’s release, against 25% using computers at work in 1984, three years after the IBM PC, while only 1%–5% of all work hours were assisted by it. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | B — Evidence that could tell the accounts apart | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025) | source_ids: SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Academic working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Independent academic (Vanderbilt University, Harvard Kennedy School) and central-bank economist (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, writing in a personal capacity); survey partly funded by the Walmart Foundation | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | United States, adults aged 18–64; August and November 2024 survey waves; historical comparisons with PCs and the internet | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Online survey designed to mirror the Current Population Survey, compared with historical government surveys of computer and internet use | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Real-Time Population Survey waves (pooled N = 9,742); Current Population Survey supplements for PCs and the internet | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Generative AI tools in general | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Personal computers and the internet, timed from each technology’s first mass-market product | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Work adoption about as fast as PCs, overall adoption faster than PCs or the internet; 1%–5% of work hours assisted; self-reported time savings equal to 1.4% of all work hours | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Speed and intensity of generative AI adoption in the US | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | A claim that generative AI is diffusing faster in depth, or a claim about productivity | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Read in the February 2025 revision and the September 2024 original; both versions compare overall adoption with PCs and the internet (39.5% against 20% in September 2024, 39% against 20% in February 2025) and work adoption with PCs at work (28% against 25% in September 2024, 27% against 25% in February 2025), and the revision leads with the work comparison; the revision also reports 26% of employed respondents using it for work in August and November 2024 and 23% in the previous week; the launch dates chosen drive the comparison; adoption means any use in the reference period; time savings are self-reported; a working paper, not peer-reviewed | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Read as slow diffusion: LD01-SL-C03; predicted slow diffusion: LD01-SL-C01 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | US / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Adoption differs by age, education and occupation | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-01, T4, D2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Measures of intensity or firm integration that rise as fast as individual adoption | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-16 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D2 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 a7ed49078308b9ab0db9bd8a99f13eb740fe30f77df24910b076bab4a183d8b6.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 15 — LD01-SL-C15” SHA-256
318a5999a807b73993b46d280fe0a9c57b79da3ce409ef5bce6dadf9718eb46b; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C15--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C15 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 15 — LD01-SL-C15 cites "Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-BICK-BLANDIN-DEMING-NBER-W32966--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Bick, Blandin & Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper 32966, 2024 (revised February 2025)".