Claim LD11-HQ-C15 (v1.0)

Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

How much of the fall in AI prices is competition rather than cheaper technology?Epoch AI estimates the price of fixed capability has fallen about 13× per year since 2023; the claim explicitly does not license competition as the sole cause, which is the question this study decomposes.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Falling total AI bills, training costs, accelerator prices, or competition as sole cause
Source (field 6, as printed): Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026
Source type (field 7): INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (as printed: “Independent research analysis”)
Institutional position: Independent research nonprofit
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): RAPIDLY_MATURING (as printed: “RAPIDLY MATURING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD11-HQ-C15.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026” → SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0 — Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026; class INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C15	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Epoch AI's September 2026 multi-benchmark analysis estimates that the price of reaching fixed LLM capability levels has fallen about 13× per year since 2023.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Foundation-model market structure	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09
7	SOURCE TYPE	Independent research analysis	classes: INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent research nonprofit	—
9	SCOPE	Five benchmark fixed-capability price series; 2023–2026	—
10	DESIGN	Benchmark-price synthesis	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Five primary benchmarks	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple models	—
13	COMPARATOR	Earlier model prices	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Estimated 47% decline per quarter, about 13× per year	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Rapid fixed-capability inference-price decline	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Falling total AI bills, training costs, accelerator prices, or competition as sole cause	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Benchmark/list-price methodology; transaction prices can differ	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Earlier 9×–900× threshold-specific estimates show heterogeneity	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Global API market / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Cheaper capability can broaden access; incidence not measured	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Sustained price reversal or revised benchmark methodology	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-11 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 fa6b0f86c94a0e9b18a55f5a7791853d131c3aa190d458b9f44d93084243cce2.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 15 — LD11-HQ-C15 ” SHA-256 d07cd3066e89e46323115c068107e7341f067924e7010c4e9ad75eacc15e6244; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 15 — LD11-HQ-C15 cites "Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §4; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-PLUNGING-PRICE-OF-THOUGHT-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Epoch AI, The Plunging Price of Thought, Sep 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §4; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.