Claim LD11-HQ-C14 (v1.0)
OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Global model share, enterprise production share or infrastructure independence
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study
- Source type (field 7)
- PREPRINT (as printed: “Platform telemetry / preprint”)
- Institutional position
- Platform + investor
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is not the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD11-HQ-C14--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
NEWER VERSION EXISTS: the current version is LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1. This version is explicitly superseded by LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study” → SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0 — OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)
Read the originals
- SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY: open the original
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD11-HQ-C14 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | OpenRouter and a16z report that open-weight models reached approximately one-third of token usage on OpenRouter by late 2025. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | C — Foundation-model market structure | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study | source_ids: SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Platform telemetry / preprint | classes: PREPRINT |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Platform + investor | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | OpenRouter routed tokens; global platform traffic; 2024–2025 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Observational telemetry | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | 100+ trillion tokens | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Multiple open/proprietary models | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Proprietary models | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Open weights reached ~one-third of weekly token volume by late 2025 | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Model-vendor counterpower on a large developer-oriented platform | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Global model share, enterprise production share or infrastructure independence | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Single platform; developer/cost-sensitive selection; positioned source | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Menlo enterprise open-source measure is a different population | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Global platform / English-dominant | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Lower-cost/open-weight choices expand developer options | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D1, L-B, R-2, LD-11 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Independent multi-platform telemetry | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); R-2 (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 c4abfd3a2e4d27ceb50e4504e0cab758cf62dea48b5272972092ca1b4ced09b9.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 14 — LD11-HQ-C14 ” SHA-25606ae8a623e0bbd7fba354463ad3bc034a2d8d8936557d3d9ee02bd8001ac0961; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
- CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD11-HQ-C14--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 14 — LD11-HQ-C14 cites "OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §3; ledger C14 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-OPENROUTER-A16Z-100T-TOKEN-STUDY--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "OpenRouter/a16z, State of AI: 100 Trillion Token Study"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §3; ledger C14 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.