Claim LD11-HQ-C13 (v1.0)

Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

How large is open-weight model use beyond a single routing platform?The only enterprise-side provider shares cited come from a single venture-investor survey and are rated contested; an independent organisational survey would add a second, replicable enterprise measure.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Audited provider revenue share, consumer share or global market share
Source (field 6, as printed): Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise
Source type (field 7): SURVEY (as printed: “Investor survey/report”)
Institutional position: Venture investor; Anthropic portfolio company
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): CONTESTED (as printed: “CONTESTED”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD11-HQ-C13.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise” → SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025--v1.0 — Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise; class SURVEY (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD11-HQ-C13	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Menlo Ventures estimated late-2025 enterprise LLM API shares of Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27% and Google 21%, compared with OpenAI 50% and Anthropic 12% in 2023.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Foundation-model market structure	—
5	MATURITY	CONTESTED	states: CONTESTED
6	SOURCE	Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise	source_ids: SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025
7	SOURCE TYPE	Investor survey/report	classes: SURVEY
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Venture investor; Anthropic portfolio company	—
9	SCOPE	U.S. enterprise production API usage/spend model; Nov–Dec 2025	—
10	DESIGN	Survey + market-sizing model	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	495 U.S. enterprise AI decision-makers	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple LLM families	—
13	COMPARATOR	2023 estimates	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Large estimated leadership reversal within two years	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Contestability in one enterprise usage/spend measure	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Audited provider revenue share, consumer share or global market share	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Investor conflict; weighted/modelled estimate; U.S.-only sample	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Other usage metrics rank providers differently	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Enterprise buyers appear able to shift new workloads among providers	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, R-1, LD-11	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Audited revenue or independent replicated enterprise survey	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); R-1 (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-11 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 9e2edc338044aee5e786c8d5c7664c52ade16bdd7fb43722b4c59b51bf67edc1.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 13 — LD11-HQ-C13 ” SHA-256 9f7ee14f811a8138c50402ae9a304fb9bf7409dc6c83167ed9ff981acb60556a; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 13 — LD11-HQ-C13 cites "Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §2; ledger C13 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-MENLO-STATE-OF-GENAI-ENTERPRISE-2025--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Menlo Ventures, 2025 State of Generative AI in the Enterprise"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §2; ledger C13 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.