Claim LD11-HQ-C06 (v1.0)
Epoch AI estimated Google held about one quarter of global cumulative AI compute in Q4 2025, driven primarily by roughly 3.81 million H100-equivalents of custom TPUs.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Merchant accelerator market share or reduced overall ownership concentration
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026
- Source type (field 7)
- INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (as printed: “Independent research dataset”)
- Institutional position
- Independent research nonprofit
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD11-HQ-C06.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026” → SRC-LD11-EPOCH-GOOGLE-COMPUTE-2026-04-07--v1.0 — Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026; class INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (explicit public provenance pin)
Read the originals
- SRC-LD11-EPOCH-GOOGLE-COMPUTE-2026-04-07: open the original
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD11-HQ-C06 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Epoch AI estimated Google held about one quarter of global cumulative AI compute in Q4 2025, driven primarily by roughly 3.81 million H100-equivalents of custom TPUs. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | A/B — Accelerators and compute | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026 | source_ids: SRC-LD11-EPOCH-GOOGLE-COMPUTE-2026-04-07 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Independent research dataset | classes: INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Independent research nonprofit | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Google cumulative compute ownership; global; Q4 2025 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Modelled observational dataset | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Google TPU and NVIDIA ownership estimates | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | H100e | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Google TPU vs Google NVIDIA capacity | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | TPU median 3,812,878 H100e; Google NVIDIA median 1,224,942 H100e | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Custom silicon as accelerator substitution inside concentrated ownership | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Merchant accelerator market share or reduced overall ownership concentration | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | H100e approximate; some custom chips incompletely tracked | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Supports substitution while C05 shows hyperscaler concentration | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Global / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Custom silicon is concentrated in very large integrated firms and partners | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D1, LD-11, R-1 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Material revision to Epoch estimates | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE); R-1 (LENS)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 a87f1756cbb6911ab43867553703bbf566b94e15722583b9830deb44b61e596c.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 06 — LD11-HQ-C06 ” SHA-256123abc35d225fd294cd4dd3a9927d1305b2d26927eb614560127d2402c90881e; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-GOOGLE-COMPUTE-2026-04-07--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 06 — LD11-HQ-C06 cites "Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §1; ledger C06 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-EPOCH-GOOGLE-COMPUTE-2026-04-07--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Epoch AI, 7 Apr 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): HQ-Q7; Batch 04 §1; ledger C06 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.