Claim LD11-HQ-C04 (v1.0)
Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18%.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Falling overall concentration or treating revenue and shipment shares as one estimand
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026
- Source type (field 7)
- COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE (as printed: “Commercial market intelligence”)
- Institutional position
- Commercial
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- RAPIDLY_MATURING (as printed: “RAPIDLY MATURING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD11-HQ-C04--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026” → SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0 — Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026; class COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD11-HQ-C04 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Counterpoint estimated Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares of SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33% and Micron 18%. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | A — Semiconductor bottlenecks | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | RAPIDLY MATURING | states: RAPIDLY_MATURING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026 | source_ids: SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Commercial market intelligence | classes: COMMERCIAL_MARKET_INTELLIGENCE |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Commercial | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | HBM revenue; global; Q2 2026 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Market tracking | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Vendor HBM revenue estimates | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | n.a. | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | SK hynix 64% one year earlier | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Three-supplier market with substantial share movement inside the oligopoly | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Concentrated memory supply with internal contestability | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Falling overall concentration or treating revenue and shipment shares as one estimand | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Commercial estimate; rounded shares sum to 101% | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Shipment-share series are different estimands | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Korea / US / global / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Accelerator developers depend on a small qualified supplier set | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D1, L-B, LD-11 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Volume entry by another HBM supplier | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); LD-11 (LIVING_DEBATE)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 3f585be7d24129c5b4bc803a8860f7a59681d95045638343f4e3073824a68880.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1Ff_IzUBMpax35rKovu0vxXr1WTtpfCDP; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 04 — LD11-HQ-C04 ” SHA-25631b4ad92bce4ea4b57f0c188f7ea85c59d4458f50ce8a72eeb923283ace6924f; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r06-ld11-claim-ledger-v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R06 — LD-11 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 04 — LD11-HQ-C04 cites "Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): Batch 01 §3; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD11-COUNTERPOINT-DRAM-HBM-SHARE-2026-09--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM Market Share, Sep 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #41 Source inventory): Batch 01 §3; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE.