Claim LD10-HQ-C15 (v1.0)

A 2026 Google AI Overviews audit found 13.7% overall activation, 64.7% on question-form queries, nearly 30% of cited domains absent from the co-displayed first results page, and 11.0% of atomic claims unsupported by cited pages.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

Are AI answer layers narrowing or widening the range of sites people visit?An audit found nearly 30% of domains cited in AI Overviews were absent from the first page of results shown with them, so AI answers may route attention through a different set of sources; the audit measures what is shown, not what users visit.
Are AI search answers less faithful to their cited sources outside US English?Reports 11.0% of atomic claims unsupported by cited pages in a 2026 AI Overviews audit; a cross-market replication is named as what would change it, and it does not license claims about user beliefs.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (PREPRINT) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: User belief effects or claim that AIOs are mostly wrong
Source (field 6, as printed): Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021
Source type (field 7): PREPRINT (as printed: “Preprint audit”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD10-HQ-C15.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021” → SRC-LD10-XU-IQBAL-MONTGOMERY-2026--v1.0 — Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD10-XU-IQBAL-MONTGOMERY-2026: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C15	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	A 2026 Google AI Overviews audit found 13.7% overall activation, 64.7% on question-form queries, nearly 30% of cited domains absent from the co-displayed first results page, and 11.0% of atomic claims unsupported by cited pages.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C/F — Source selection & platform governance	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021	source_ids: SRC-LD10-XU-IQBAL-MONTGOMERY-2026
7	SOURCE TYPE	Preprint audit	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	U.S. Google; 55,393 trending queries; Mar–Apr 2026	—
10	DESIGN	Large-scale audit	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	55,393 queries; 98,020 atomic claims	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Google AI Overviews	—
13	COMPARATOR	Co-displayed first-page results	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Distinct source selection; 11.0% unsupported, omission dominant; political topics lower activation	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Source-selection logic, fidelity and activation	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	User belief effects or claim that AIOs are mostly wrong	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Automated/LLM-assisted claim checking; U.S. only	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Other credibility measures disagree on source quality	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Question-style users face more AI mediation; publisher exposure varies by selection	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, D4b, D6, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Human-validated re-audit or cross-market replication	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: PREPRINT
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); D4b (SUB_AREA); D6 (DOMAIN); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 9bf0b9fce250b13babf02b8c897b4e7e01d9326c357dda76e27f148aacc374aa.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 15 — LD10-HQ-C15 ” SHA-256 fde7e78d06505979fdc80ab2d97bdb7a64f116c76f17c1d161e36ec14cd6dd95; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-XU-IQBAL-MONTGOMERY-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 15 — LD10-HQ-C15 cites "Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S9): R07 Batch 02 lines 89, 91, 92; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 937 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-XU-IQBAL-MONTGOMERY-2026--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Xu, Iqbal & Montgomery 2026, arXiv:2605.14021"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S9): R07 Batch 02 lines 89, 91, 92; ledger C15 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 937 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.