Claim LD10-HQ-C10 (v1.0)

A 2026 peer-reviewed study estimated LLM persuasion at about US$48–$75 per persuaded voter under its simulation, but concluded traditional campaign methods were currently easier to scale.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE + INTERPRETATION (AUTHORS_INTERPRETATION) (as printed: “ESTIMATE / AUTHORS' INTERPRETATION”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (DATED_VINTAGE) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH DATED-VINTAGE QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: No risk, future-vintage conclusions or observed campaign effectiveness
Source (field 6, as printed): Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026
Source type (field 7): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (as printed: “Peer-reviewed article”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD10-HQ-C10.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026” → SRC-LD10-CHEN-JEPS-2026--v1.0 — Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C10	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	A 2026 peer-reviewed study estimated LLM persuasion at about US$48–$75 per persuaded voter under its simulation, but concluded traditional campaign methods were currently easier to scale.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE / AUTHORS' INTERPRETATION	base_types: ESTIMATE, INTERPRETATION · qualifiers: AUTHORS_INTERPRETATION
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B/D — Reach	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD10-CHEN-JEPS-2026
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed article	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	U.S.; political persuasion; study vintage 2025	—
10	DESIGN	Two survey RCTs + simulation	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	N=10,417	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	LLM chatbots, exact study model details not load-bearing here	—
13	COMPARATOR	Actual campaign ads / traditional campaign costs	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Conditional persuasion similar to ads; simulated US$48–$75 per persuaded voter vs ~US$100 traditional, but exposure scaling favoured traditional methods	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Cost-adjusted scalability under study assumptions	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	No risk, future-vintage conclusions or observed campaign effectiveness	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Simulation assumptions; model-vintage sensitive	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	C08/C09 show stronger newer per-contact effects	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Reach infrastructure determines who can translate capability into influence	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, L-C, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Default large-scale exposure or updated cost assumptions	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH DATED-VINTAGE QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: DATED_VINTAGE
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); L-C (LENS); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 8bb855fc8e672e3766bc2c4604aaeefd7484b5c01bf923e710543ba634c23d96.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 10 — LD10-HQ-C10 ” SHA-256 ad2daba5e6f1eaf2ff927da097c671f2aa97bc97706d57b064d26a1d0a7e8cb6; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-CHEN-JEPS-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 10 — LD10-HQ-C10 cites "Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S6): R07 Batch 01 lines 234, 236; ledger C10 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 933 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-CHEN-JEPS-2026--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Chen et al., Journal of Experimental Political Science 2026"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S6): R07 Batch 01 lines 234, 236; ledger C10 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 933 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.