Claim LD10-HQ-C09 (v1.0)

In two preregistered UK experiments, brief AI conversations increased real petition signing by 12.8 and 19.7 percentage points, while attitude effects did not predict behavioural effects.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

An updated meta-analysis of AI persuasion that separates attitudes from behaviourBrief AI conversations increased real petition signing while attitude effects did not predict behavioural effects, which is why attitude and behaviour outcomes must be pooled separately.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (PREPRINT) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Turnout, validated vote choice, high-cost action or natural population effect
Source (field 6, as printed): Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200
Source type (field 7): PREPRINT (as printed: “Preprint”)
Institutional position: Academic + UK AISI
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD10-HQ-C09.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200” → SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026--v1.0 — Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C09	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In two preregistered UK experiments, brief AI conversations increased real petition signing by 12.8 and 19.7 percentage points, while attitude effects did not predict behavioural effects.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B — Durability & behaviour	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200	source_ids: SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026
7	SOURCE TYPE	Preprint	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Academic + UK AISI	—
9	SCOPE	UK Prolific; real petitions; 2025–26	—
10	DESIGN	Two preregistered RCTs	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	17,950 responses from 14,779 people	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple frontier models	—
13	COMPARATOR	Neutral AI conversation	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Petition signing +12.8pp / +19.7pp; attitude-behaviour correlations r=.05 and r=.18, both nonsignificant	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Low-cost behavioural transmission and persuasion/mobilization distinction	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Turnout, validated vote choice, high-cost action or natural population effect	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Paid captive attention; low-cost behaviours; not peer-reviewed	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Donation study provides related low-cost behavioural evidence	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	UK / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Behavioural effects concentrated differently from attitude effects	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, R-1, R-2	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Field replication or higher-stakes behaviour	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: PREPRINT
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); R-1 (LENS); R-2 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1 — HQ placement: SC-LD10-04; facets: source_maturity=PREPRINT, design_family=PREREGISTERED_EXPERIMENT, outcome_family=BEHAVIOUR, geography_scope=UK

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 a0060bb77b399db0ec3326d4fe5213a3fe97f3242af1f0208f6b1d0762615090.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 09 — LD10-HQ-C09 ” SHA-256 6d5780fc7927f71c08ca0a913f4d30e388c67f7d03662023b15852597f11b69f; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.
SocioLens — Proof Source Registry v0.4 (v0.4) — Drive ID 1_-GLmj6PfetWDQH2KldMv-61vmSmzdAyyxgZZZCFnbE; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified 2026-09-27T19:04:00.374Z; block “REGISTRY ENTRY SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026” SHA-256 cc4d59958f67d1e14e5ba1390200efe5035cd0f996b0818691e50bf4acd411be; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT PROOF SOURCE REGISTRY.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/proof-source-registry-v0.4.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 09 — LD10-HQ-C09 cites "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200"; Builder identification: the cited work is Proof Source Registry v0.4 identity SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026 (canonical label "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2604.09200"), Registry-linked to this logical Claim; SocioLens record v1.0 is its sole record.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-2026--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record.