Claim LD10-HQ-C08 (v1.0)

In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (PREPRINT) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT LABEL”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Population-scale influence, face-to-face superiority or election outcomes
Source (field 6, as printed): Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475
Source type (field 7): PREPRINT (as printed: “Preprint”)
Institutional position: Academic + UK AISI
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is not the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD10-HQ-C08--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

NEWER VERSION EXISTS: the current version is LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1. This version is explicitly superseded by LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1.

Versions:v1.0 v1.1 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475” → SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0 — Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C08	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	A — Controlled persuasion	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475	source_ids: SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475
7	SOURCE TYPE	Preprint	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Academic + UK AISI	—
9	SCOPE	UK Prolific; 10 policy stances; 2025–26	—
10	DESIGN	Four preregistered RCTs	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	18,978 conversations; 6,923 people	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Claude Opus 4.1/4.6, ChatGPT-4o, GPT-5.4, Grok 4.20, Gemini 2.5 Pro	—
13	COMPARATOR	Laypeople, selected laypeople, elite debaters, professional canvassers	—
14	MAIN RESULT	AI +8.2pp vs random laypeople; +5.6pp selected; +4.6pp elite debaters; throughput-constrained vs coached debaters 0.0pp [−1.7,+1.6]	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Newer-vintage AI-human persuasion gap and throughput mechanism	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Population-scale influence, face-to-face superiority or election outcomes	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Paid opt-in text setting; not peer-reviewed	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	C07 older meta-analysis shows vintage contrast	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	UK / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Frontier-model access and throughput may advantage resource-rich communicators	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, D3, T1, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Peer-review revision or naturalistic replication	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT LABEL	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: PREPRINT
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); D3 (DOMAIN); T1 (TENSION); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 f0668e1b9b31025347126db865c91766ff9d8d19d001785f6aa60bfe9a8f3134.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 08 — LD10-HQ-C08 ” SHA-256 ed3ed34cba7ee7fdcf72a02238c787ca4c57acc30a2fca5c7bc166f69c2ea767; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 08 — LD10-HQ-C08 cites "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S5): R07 Batch 01 lines 163, 165; ledger C08 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 931 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S5): R07 Batch 01 lines 163, 165; ledger C08 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 931 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.