Claim LD10-HQ-C05 (v1.0)

Parallel 2025 experiments in Canada and Poland found larger candidate-preference shifts than the U.S. study, around 10 points on the study's 0–100 scale in preregistered specifications.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PRIMARY_SI) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED FROM PRIMARY SI”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: 10% of voters switched, election-result effects, or general global magnitude
Source (field 6, as printed): Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information
Source type (field 7): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (as printed: “Peer-reviewed article”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD10-HQ-C05--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information” → SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C05	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Parallel 2025 experiments in Canada and Poland found larger candidate-preference shifts than the U.S. study, around 10 points on the study's 0–100 scale in preregistered specifications.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	A — Controlled persuasion	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information	source_ids: SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed article	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	Canada and Poland; 2025 election contexts	—
10	DESIGN	Preregistered RCTs	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	About 1,500 Canada; about 2,100 Poland	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	GPT / DeepSeek / Llama variants documented in SI	—
13	COMPARATOR	Experimental treatment arms	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Canada 10.049 [7.524,12.574]; Poland 9.939 [6.675,13.203]	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Cross-national heterogeneity in immediate attitude effects	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	10% of voters switched, election-result effects, or general global magnitude	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED FROM PRIMARY SI	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PRIMARY_SI · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Context, polarization and model mix differ across countries	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	U.S. effect smaller in same study family	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Canada / Poland / multilingual contexts	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Cross-national heterogeneity is substantial; subgroup incidence not fully adjudicated	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, L-B, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Replications across additional elections/settings	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 e5543cb5b69121850414d9fafcf4bc26d9a8aa45478dc5564ab6f5999476a893.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 05 — LD10-HQ-C05 ” SHA-256 929dfaf8aec5ee0c2b0bdcede6cd5d51d6d4befc8fd657457f815fa4235f2941; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 05 — LD10-HQ-C05 cites "Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S3): R07 Batch 01 lines 71, 73; ledger C05 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 928 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S3): R07 Batch 01 lines 71, 73; ledger C05 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 928 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.