Claim LD10-HQ-C04 (v1.0)

In the 2024 U.S. election study, AI advocacy shifted candidate preference by 2.879 points on a 0–100 scale in the preregistered specification; post-hoc stated vote-choice effects were a few percentage points.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PRIMARY_SI) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED FROM PRIMARY SI”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Election-result effect, validated voting behaviour or turnout
Source (field 6, as printed): Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information
Source type (field 7): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (as printed: “Peer-reviewed article”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): RAPIDLY_MATURING (as printed: “RAPIDLY MATURING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD10-HQ-C04--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information” → SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C04	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In the 2024 U.S. election study, AI advocacy shifted candidate preference by 2.879 points on a 0–100 scale in the preregistered specification; post-hoc stated vote-choice effects were a few percentage points.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	A — Controlled persuasion	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information	source_ids: SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed article	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	U.S. adults; 2024 election; opt-in AI dialogue	—
10	DESIGN	Preregistered RCT	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Pro-Harris n=1,255; pro-Trump n=1,202	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Perplexity + GPT-4o multi-agent setup documented in SI	—
13	COMPARATOR	Opposite-direction treatment / baseline	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Candidate-preference coefficient 2.879 [2.019,3.740]; post-hoc vote-choice ~+3.06pp Harris and +2.22pp Trump	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Immediate stated candidate preference under experimental exposure	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Election-result effect, validated voting behaviour or turnout	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED FROM PRIMARY SI	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PRIMARY_SI · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Self-report; experimental exposure; model-role details arm-specific	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Canada/Poland show larger effects; Chen shows exposure bottleneck	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Effects varied by baseline attitude; no population incidence established	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, L-B, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Field validation or revised primary analysis	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-10 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 ccdd3ae6c7c8f5309b3d680a3b2c54da25f4c99e5609f50e95eb5a393ce63a41.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 04 — LD10-HQ-C04 ” SHA-256 6208fdf7d73ed8ebde852943206f0e9b09076b271c0f41f811829ea48b265515; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 04 — LD10-HQ-C04 cites "Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S3): R07 Batch 01 lines 71, 73; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 928 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-LIN-NATURE-2025-AND-SI--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Lin et al., Nature 2025 + Supplementary Information"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S3): R07 Batch 01 lines 71, 73; ledger C04 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 928 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.