Claim LD09-SL-C30 (v1.0)
In laboratory experiments, indiscriminate training of models over generations on data produced by earlier models caused “irreversible defects” in which the tails of the original data distribution disappear; in the preprint’s language-model experiment, keeping 10% of the original data led to only minor degradation.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Any evidence about human knowledge or society; this is a laboratory result about models
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024
- Source type (field 7)
- PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (as printed: “Peer-reviewed journal article”)
- Institutional position
- Independent academic (University of Oxford and University of Cambridge-led)
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- CONTESTED (as printed: “CONTESTED”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-15
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD09-SL-C30.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024” → SRC-SL-SHUMAILOV-ET-AL-NATURE-2024--v1.0 — Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD09-SL-C30 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | In laboratory experiments, indiscriminate training of models over generations on data produced by earlier models caused “irreversible defects” in which the tails of the original data distribution disappear; in the preprint’s language-model experiment, keeping 10% of the original data led to only minor degradation. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | C — Systems, decisions and shared knowledge | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | CONTESTED | states: CONTESTED |
| 6 | SOURCE | Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024 | source_ids: SRC-SL-SHUMAILOV-ET-AL-NATURE-2024 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Peer-reviewed journal article | classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Independent academic (University of Oxford and University of Cambridge-led) | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Generative models trained recursively on their own outputs, in the laboratory | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Simulation and fine-tuning experiments over successive generations | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Gaussian mixture models, variational autoencoders and a small language model fine-tuned on a Wikipedia-based dataset | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | OPT-125m and simpler models | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Training on original data | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Journal abstract: “indiscriminate use of model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects in the resulting models, in which tails of the original content distribution disappear”; preprint: perplexity degrades without original data, and keeping 10% of it leads to “only minor degradation” | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | What happens to models when their training data are increasingly model-generated | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Any evidence about human knowledge or society; this is a laboratory result about models | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Journal version read in abstract, preprint in full; small models; data replaced rather than accumulated (see LD09-SL-C31); a 2025 Author Correction changes one notation in the theory section and no result | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Accumulating data avoids collapse: LD09-SL-C31 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Not applicable / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | The rare parts of a distribution are lost first | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-09, D3 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Evidence from training practice at scale | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-15 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-09 (LIVING_DEBATE); D3 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 16e1f0ce8a0dfabb99c9e0170402f3f4f53bcc97479a66ff4dd78887a7c550f1.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C30 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-09 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-09 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 30 — LD09-SL-C30” SHA-256
934e3b3b4df31017258221d9813d5e963611ebe1f574b325528d7eb0ee0fe72f; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD09-SL-C30--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C30 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-09 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C30 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-09 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-09 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-SHUMAILOV-ET-AL-NATURE-2024--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 30 — LD09-SL-C30 cites "Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-SHUMAILOV-ET-AL-NATURE-2024--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Shumailov, Shumaylov, Zhao, Papernot, Anderson & Gal, “AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data,” Nature 631, 2024".