Claim LD09-SL-C25 (v1.0)

Across more than 350 language models, when two models both answer a leaderboard question wrongly they give the same wrong answer 60% of the time on one dataset, and larger, more accurate models have highly correlated errors even across different architectures and providers.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

Does pooling different models keep restoring diversity as models converge?Larger, more accurate models have highly correlated errors across architectures and providers.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Effects on real decisions
Source (field 6, as printed): Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962
Source type (field 7): PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER (as printed: “Peer-reviewed conference paper”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-10-15
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD09-SL-C25.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962” → SRC-SL-KIM-ET-AL-CORRELATED-ERRORS-ICML-2025--v1.0 — Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962; class PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD09-SL-C25	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Across more than 350 language models, when two models both answer a leaderboard question wrongly they give the same wrong answer 60% of the time on one dataset, and larger, more accurate models have highly correlated errors even across different architectures and providers.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Systems, decisions and shared knowledge	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962	source_ids: SRC-SL-KIM-ET-AL-CORRELATED-ERRORS-ICML-2025
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed conference paper	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	Leaderboard tasks and a résumé-screening task	—
10	DESIGN	Analysis of agreement between models’ errors	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	More than 350 language models on two leaderboards	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Language models from many providers	—
13	COMPARATOR	Pairs of models from different architectures and providers	—
14	MAIN RESULT	60% agreement when both err on one dataset; correlation higher among larger, more accurate models; downstream effects in model-as-judge and hiring settings	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Whether using models from different providers avoids shared errors	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Effects on real decisions	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Official abstract only; benchmark tasks; agreement baselines matter (LD09-SL-C26)	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Diversity restored by pooling vendors in idea generation: LD09-SL-C17	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Not checked / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Not recorded	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-09, D3	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Evidence that model diversity reduces shared errors in deployed decisions	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-15	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-09 (LIVING_DEBATE); D3 (DOMAIN)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-09 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 d2ba0afec675d4cecc1994c601db448c669bd305c96057e5a73258d141d983cc.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C25 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-09 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-09 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 25 — LD09-SL-C25” SHA-256 7e1921d65516278e0128ddb0d71cc5b3a06746fe97bc2a1742a6ea27aa0e4555; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD09-SL-C25--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C25 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-09 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD09-SL-C25 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-09 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-09 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-KIM-ET-AL-CORRELATED-ERRORS-ICML-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 25 — LD09-SL-C25 cites "Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-KIM-ET-AL-CORRELATED-ERRORS-ICML-2025--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Kim, Garg, Peng & Garg, “Correlated Errors in Large Language Models,” ICML 2025, arXiv:2506.07962".