Claim LD08-SL-C02 (v1.0)
In 171,394 papers from 57 computer-science conferences (2000–2019), after deep learning took off in 2012 large technology firms published 44 more papers a year per AI conference than a synthetic counterfactual predicts and elite universities 40 more, while mid-tier and lower-tier universities published fewer; the authors attribute the gap to unequal access to compute.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- A measure of influence or quality, or a statement about research on AI’s social effects
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
- Institutional position
- Independent academic (Ivey Business School and Virginia Tech)
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-16
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD08-SL-C02--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020” → SRC-SL-AHMED-WAHED-ARXIV-2010-15581--v1.0 — Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD08-SL-C02 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | In 171,394 papers from 57 computer-science conferences (2000–2019), after deep learning took off in 2012 large technology firms published 44 more papers a year per AI conference than a synthetic counterfactual predicts and elite universities 40 more, while mid-tier and lower-tier universities published fewer; the authors attribute the gap to unequal access to compute. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | A — Who produces knowledge about AI | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020 | source_ids: SRC-SL-AHMED-WAHED-ARXIV-2010-15581 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Academic working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Independent academic (Ivey Business School and Virginia Tech) | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Papers at 57 computer-science conferences, 2000–2019 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Generalized synthetic control treating 2012 as a shock to AI conferences, with non-AI conferences as controls; text analysis of compute mentions | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | 171,394 papers | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Not applicable | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | A synthetic counterfactual built from non-AI computer-science conferences | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Fortune 500 Global technology firms +44 papers a year per AI conference against the counterfactual (from an average of 23); QS top-50 universities +40; mid-tier (QS 201–300) and lower-tier (QS 301–500) universities fewer | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Who gained and lost participation in AI research after deep learning | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | A measure of influence or quality, or a statement about research on AI’s social effects | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Working paper (arXiv version 1); no journal version found; the mid- and lower-tier losses are reported with different sizes in the introduction (14 and 5 fewer) and in the body, so this claim gives no number for them; the authors attribute the gap in part to compute, from a text analysis of papers; placebo tests and alternative rankings give the same pattern; the ranking is US- and QS-centric | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | LD08-SL-C01 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Global / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Mid- and lower-tier universities lose relative participation; historically Black colleges and universities and Hispanic-serving institutions are heavily under-represented throughout; no post-2012 change was found for historically Black colleges and universities, and Hispanic-serving institutions were not tested | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-08, D3 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | A replication after 2019 or with public compute provision as a treatment | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-16 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-08 (LIVING_DEBATE); D3 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 3c97e209c20fd6446613544bc9a5c0c52904fa17c3b3d01f62bdf0228a963c5f.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD08-SL-C02 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-08 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-08 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 02 — LD08-SL-C02” SHA-256
597db2911eb94aaa9419f37e1c3d48e2446b580dbeea262ec5e43c32311b8ca8; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD08-SL-C02--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD08-SL-C02 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-08 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD08-SL-C02 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-08 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-08 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-AHMED-WAHED-ARXIV-2010-15581--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 02 — LD08-SL-C02 cites "Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-AHMED-WAHED-ARXIV-2010-15581--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Ahmed & Wahed, “The De-democratization of AI: Deep Learning and the Compute Divide in Artificial Intelligence Research,” arXiv:2010.15581, 2020".