Claim LD06-SL-C29 (v1.0)

Of 8,931 mentions of the 50 most used language models in 5,242 biomedical publications from 2022 to March 2026, 77.7% were of closed commercial models, and 42% involved a model already retired when the paper was published or scheduled to retire within two years.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

How many published AI evaluations outside medicine can no longer be repeated?In biomedical publications, 42% of mentions of the 50 most used models involved a model retired by publication or due to retire within two years; median 538 days to retirement.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (PREPRINT) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: A rate for fields other than biomedicine
Source (field 6, as printed): Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026
Source type (field 7): PREPRINT (as printed: “Preprint”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-10-15
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD06-SL-C29.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026” → SRC-SL-WOLFRATH-ET-AL-MODEL-RETIREMENT-ARXIV-2609-04699--v1.0 — Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD06-SL-C29	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Of 8,931 mentions of the 50 most used language models in 5,242 biomedical publications from 2022 to March 2026, 77.7% were of closed commercial models, and 42% involved a model already retired when the paper was published or scheduled to retire within two years.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Evaluation in governance, audits and red-teaming	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026	source_ids: SRC-SL-WOLFRATH-ET-AL-MODEL-RETIREMENT-ARXIV-2609-04699
7	SOURCE TYPE	Preprint	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	PubMed original research applying a specific language model to a biomedical task	—
10	DESIGN	Agent-assisted extraction from abstracts, validated on a subset; lifecycle data for the top 50 models	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	61,077 abstracts screened; 5,242 publications	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	The 50 most frequently used models	—
13	COMPARATOR	Providers’ retirement dates	—
14	MAIN RESULT	77.7% closed-weight commercial; 42% retired by publication or within two years; median 538 days from publication to retirement	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	How far published evaluations of closed models can be reproduced later	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A rate for fields other than biomedicine	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Read in abstract only; very recent preprint; an extraction agent read the abstracts	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Bears on the Field Map unknown of independent evaluation under API retirement	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Not checked / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Not analysed in this claim	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-06, D4b	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Replication in other fields; evidence on actual re-run failures	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: PREPRINT
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-15	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-06 (LIVING_DEBATE); D4b (SUB_AREA)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-06 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 f470a1500e21d14933473e9999c29504a9df120746f3016225efbb54c8aaec60.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C29 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-06 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-06 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 29 — LD06-SL-C29” SHA-256 e20cd94d4bbac28e9f949f729b460c39c746f8f41a6fe6759800826307136d98; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD06-SL-C29--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C29 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-06 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C29 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-06 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-06 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-WOLFRATH-ET-AL-MODEL-RETIREMENT-ARXIV-2609-04699--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 29 — LD06-SL-C29 cites "Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-WOLFRATH-ET-AL-MODEL-RETIREMENT-ARXIV-2609-04699--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Wolfrath, Conroy, Kosten, Bell, Neupane, Kindel et al., “Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications,” arXiv:2609.04699, September 2026".