Claim LD06-SL-C10 (v1.0)
Using item response theory, a method from psychometrics, researchers showed that 100 curated items suffice to estimate a model’s performance on MMLU’s 14,000, and released small versions of several popular benchmarks that reproduce the original results.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- That the benchmark measures its intended construct (the method shows items are redundant, not that they are valid)
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992
- Source type (field 7)
- PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER (as printed: “Peer-reviewed conference paper”)
- Institutional position
- Academic + industry (University of Michigan and IBM authors)
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-15
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD06-SL-C10--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992” → SRC-SL-MAIA-POLO-ET-AL-TINYBENCHMARKS-ICML-2024--v1.0 — Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992; class PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD06-SL-C10 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Using item response theory, a method from psychometrics, researchers showed that 100 curated items suffice to estimate a model’s performance on MMLU’s 14,000, and released small versions of several popular benchmarks that reproduce the original results. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | A — Benchmark validity and measurement | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992 | source_ids: SRC-SL-MAIA-POLO-ET-AL-TINYBENCHMARKS-ICML-2024 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Peer-reviewed conference paper | classes: PEER_REVIEWED_CONFERENCE_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Academic + industry (University of Michigan and IBM authors) | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | MMLU, the Open LLM Leaderboard, HELM and AlpacaEval 2.0 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Item selection by item response theory and related methods | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Benchmark items and many models’ responses | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Open and proprietary models on the public leaderboards | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Scores on the full benchmarks | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | 100 curated examples suffice to estimate MMLU performance accurately; tiny benchmarks reliably reproduce original evaluation results | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Whether psychometric methods can make evaluation cheaper without losing the score | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | That the benchmark measures its intended construct (the method shows items are redundant, not that they are valid) | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Read in abstract only | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Part of the measurement-repair literature (P1); does not address the validity problems in LD06-SL-C05 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Not applicable / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Not analysed in this claim | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-06, D4b | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Evidence that tiny benchmarks misrank new models | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-15 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-06 (LIVING_DEBATE); D4b (SUB_AREA)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 296d66ab79685f9a3ebd429eb9f283a943d293987959cc0222de86647f45dfc8.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C10 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-06 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-06 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 10 — LD06-SL-C10” SHA-256
37bacaf0195e92d8d1d6360109c3e8ea07ae161e979a73d8fa9e109727d1087e; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD06-SL-C10--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C10 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-06 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD06-SL-C10 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-06 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-06 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-MAIA-POLO-ET-AL-TINYBENCHMARKS-ICML-2024--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 10 — LD06-SL-C10 cites "Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-MAIA-POLO-ET-AL-TINYBENCHMARKS-ICML-2024--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Maia Polo, Weber, Choshen, Sun, Xu & Yurochkin, “tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examples,” ICML 2024, arXiv:2402.14992".