Claim LD04-SL-C17 (v1.0)

Across 205 US occupations, those more exposed to AI already had higher experience premiums, and since 2022 higher AI exposure has gone with weaker wage growth only in occupations where the experience premium is low.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: A widening junior–senior premium within occupations; individual wage effects; causation
Source (field 6, as printed): Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026
Source type (field 7): POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING (as printed: “Central-bank research article”)
Institutional position: Central bank research
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-10-14
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD04-SL-C17--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026” → SRC-SL-DAVIS-DALLAS-FED-2026-02-24--v1.0 — Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026; class POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD04-SL-C17	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Across 205 US occupations, those more exposed to AI already had higher experience premiums, and since 2022 higher AI exposure has gone with weaker wage growth only in occupations where the experience premium is low.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Entry, apprenticeship and returns to experience	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026	source_ids: SRC-SL-DAVIS-DALLAS-FED-2026-02-24
7	SOURCE TYPE	Central-bank research article	classes: POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Central bank research	—
9	SCOPE	205 US occupations; post-2022 wage growth	—
10	DESIGN	Occupation-level regression of wage growth on AI exposure interacted with the experience premium	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	BLS modelled wage estimates	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Occupational AI exposure	—
13	COMPARATOR	Less-exposed occupations	—
14	MAIN RESULT	No overall link between exposure and post-2022 wage growth; experience premium (median 40%) correlates positively with exposure; at a 0% premium, +1 SD exposure goes with −0.28 points of wage growth; at the median −0.05 (not significant); at the 90th percentile +0.2	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Whether AI exposure relates to wage growth differently by the value of experience	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A widening junior–senior premium within occupations; individual wage effects; causation	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Occupation-level and correlational; does not observe junior and senior wages within occupations; the author’s reading (AI substitutes for book knowledge and complements tacit knowledge) is interpretation	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Consistent with task-level evidence that AI helps novices most only if what novices do is what AI replaces	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	US / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Occupations that reward experience less fare worse with exposure	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-04, LD-02, D2	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Individual-level wage–tenure panels that show a different pattern	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-14	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-04 (LIVING_DEBATE); LD-02 (LIVING_DEBATE); D2 (DOMAIN)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-04 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 199edd3dd3e048d2751058819311856d4bcc510333a40efe473c43ae36281e1d.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C17 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-14; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 14 October 2026 to build the LD-04 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-04 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 17 — LD04-SL-C17” SHA-256 05db451e70e353c7613c73985d3b2fda0d9db328c944e73d66a5540ae2ee8f13; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD04-SL-C17--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C17 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-04 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C17 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-14); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 14 October 2026 to build the LD-04 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-04 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-DAVIS-DALLAS-FED-2026-02-24--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD04-SL-C17 cites "Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-DAVIS-DALLAS-FED-2026-02-24--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Davis, “AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 24 February 2026".