Claim LD04-SL-C16 (v1.0)
In Swedish job-ad and register data, the fall in job postings since 2022 tracks monetary tightening rather than AI, but within the same employers, workers aged 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations were 5.5% lower by early 2025 than in less-exposed occupations, while workers over 50 were 1.3% higher.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER, EXPOSURE) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / EXPOSURE QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Measured AI use by employers; causal job loss among young workers
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
- Institutional position
- Independent academic
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-14
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD04-SL-C16--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026” → SRC-SL-LODEFALK-LOTHMAN-KOCH-ENGBERG-ORU-WP-2-2026--v1.0 — Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD04-SL-C16 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | In Swedish job-ad and register data, the fall in job postings since 2022 tracks monetary tightening rather than AI, but within the same employers, workers aged 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations were 5.5% lower by early 2025 than in less-exposed occupations, while workers over 50 were 1.3% higher. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | C — Entry, apprenticeship and returns to experience | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026 | source_ids: SRC-SL-LODEFALK-LOTHMAN-KOCH-ENGBERG-ORU-WP-2-2026 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Academic working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Independent academic | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Sweden; job ads from the largest recruitment platform and full-population employer–employee registers | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Employer-level difference-in-differences across six age groups; timing test using the gap between the first Riksbank rate rise and ChatGPT’s release | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | 4.6 million job ads; population registers | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Occupational AI exposure | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Less-exposed occupations within the same employers | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Posting decline tracks monetary tightening; 22–25-year-olds in high-exposure occupations 5.5% lower by early 2025; over-50s +1.3%; no fall in aggregate labour demand | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Age gradient in employment by occupational AI exposure | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Measured AI use by employers; causal job loss among young workers | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Working paper; exposure, not use; only the abstract and front matter were read; a related Swedish study (Engberg et al. 2025) finds AI-exposed establishments hired more | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Non-US corroboration of a young-worker gap in exposed occupations; contrasts with Norwegian near-zero differences (LD-02) | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Sweden / Not checked | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Young workers in exposed occupations lose relative to older workers | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-04, LD-02, D2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Firm-level AI-use data, or later data in which the age gap closes | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / EXPOSURE QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER, EXPOSURE |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-14 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-04 (LIVING_DEBATE); LD-02 (LIVING_DEBATE); D2 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 495d779961601b137a72da1bd445c889a2b795f68508b33a9b1c022b1aa9cd29.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C16 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-14; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 14 October 2026 to build the LD-04 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-04 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 16 — LD04-SL-C16” SHA-256
30bc7c7c1966148d2cc56e89ea19b6b1f7035135728751a4f844258588825fa3; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD04-SL-C16--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C16 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-04 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD04-SL-C16 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-14); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 14 October 2026 to build the LD-04 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-04 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-LODEFALK-LOTHMAN-KOCH-ENGBERG-ORU-WP-2-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 16 — LD04-SL-C16 cites "Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-LODEFALK-LOTHMAN-KOCH-ENGBERG-ORU-WP-2-2026--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch & Engberg, “Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring,” Örebro University Working Paper 2/2026, version of 16 March 2026".