Claim LD03-SL-C21 (v1.0)
Across 56 economies and 16 industries, industries more exposed to generative AI grew faster in 2022–23 where countries were better prepared for AI, which the authors read as generative AI likely benefiting advanced economies more than emerging ones and widening global income disparities in the near term.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Total factor productivity; observed adoption; long-run effects
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
- Institutional position
- Mixed
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-15
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD03-SL-C21.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025” → SRC-SL-GAMBACORTA-KHARROUBI-MEHROTRA-OLIVIERO-BIS-1321--v1.0 — Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD03-SL-C21 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Across 56 economies and 16 industries, industries more exposed to generative AI grew faster in 2022–23 where countries were better prepared for AI, which the authors read as generative AI likely benefiting advanced economies more than emerging ones and widening global income disparities in the near term. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | D — Aggregate estimates and theory | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025 | source_ids: SRC-SL-GAMBACORTA-KHARROUBI-MEHROTRA-OLIVIERO-BIS-1321 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Academic working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Mixed | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | 56 economies, 16 industries; value-added growth in 2022–23 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Cross-country, cross-industry interaction design (Rajan–Zingales style) with country and industry fixed effects | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Industry-country value-added data | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Generative AI (predicted exposure, not observed use) | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Less exposed industries; less prepared countries | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Growth differential of about two percentage points between high- and low-exposure sectors for a one-standard-deviation increase in AI preparedness; benefits likely larger in advanced economies | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Whether early growth effects of generative AI differ by country readiness | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Total factor productivity; observed adoption; long-run effects | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Associational, over one year, using predicted exposure benchmarked on the US; results in value added, and the authors leave conversion to productivity to future work; BIS is an international organization of central banks | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Consistent with distributional readings of AI gains | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Multi-country | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Advanced economies gain more than emerging economies | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-03, D2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Later years or observed adoption data reversing the pattern | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-15 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-03 (LIVING_DEBATE); D2 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 9cdc729324371d4d5e6fb26ad6e6e2a1a3a05e3d9f50489e918305f3c5e4e8a6.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C21 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-15; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-03 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-03 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 21 — LD03-SL-C21” SHA-256
f7fb59bbf219d16e7e15dcc35b25e5dab743ff284c707cab29cf36a597bcefb0; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD03-SL-C21--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C21 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-03 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD03-SL-C21 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-15); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 15 October 2026 to build the LD-03 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-03 source notes, checked against full texts or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-GAMBACORTA-KHARROUBI-MEHROTRA-OLIVIERO-BIS-1321--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 21 — LD03-SL-C21 cites "Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-GAMBACORTA-KHARROUBI-MEHROTRA-OLIVIERO-BIS-1321--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Gambacorta, Kharroubi, Mehrotra & Oliviero, “Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact,” BIS Working Papers No 1321, December 2025".