Claim LD02-HQ-C17 (v1.0)
The current R05 evidence base does not establish a causal pass-through from AI-induced productivity gains into worker wages.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- UNKNOWN + INTERPRETATION (as printed: “UNKNOWN / INTERPRETATION”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE AS UNKNOWN / INTERPRETATION”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (NEGATIVE_SPACE_SYNTHESIS) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED AS NEGATIVE-SPACE SYNTHESIS”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- “AI has no wage effects” or “workers receive none of the gains”
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Cross-source synthesis of Humlum & Vestergaard; Aldasoro et al.; Danmarks Nationalbank; UK exposure evidence
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Multiple administrative / working-paper sources”)
- Institutional position
- Mixed
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD02-HQ-C17--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Cross-source synthesis of Humlum & Vestergaard” → SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
- “Aldasoro et al.” → SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
- “Danmarks Nationalbank” → SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026--v1.0 — Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper No. 223, “AI Adoption and Firm Size: Employment Effects in Monthly Administrative Data,” 16 September 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
- “UK exposure evidence” → SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025--v1.0 — Klein Teeselink, “Generative AI and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the United Kingdom,” SSRN, revised December 2025; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
Read the originals
- SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777: open the original
- SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325: open the original
- SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026: open the original
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD02-HQ-C17 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | The current R05 evidence base does not establish a causal pass-through from AI-induced productivity gains into worker wages. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | UNKNOWN / INTERPRETATION | base_types: UNKNOWN, INTERPRETATION |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | E/G — Wages and institutional transmission | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Cross-source synthesis of Humlum & Vestergaard; Aldasoro et al.; Danmarks Nationalbank; UK exposure evidence | source_ids: SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777, SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325, SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026, SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Multiple administrative / working-paper sources | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Mixed | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Current Europe/US firm and worker evidence through 25 September 2026 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Cross-study synthesis | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Multiple | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Multiple AI/GenAI adoption/use measures | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Productivity effects vs wage outcomes | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Productivity gains are measured in several settings; wage associations/effects differ and a causal productivity-to-wage transmission channel is not isolated | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Worker capture of AI productivity gains | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | “AI has no wage effects” or “workers receive none of the gains” | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED AS NEGATIVE-SPACE SYNTHESIS | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: NEGATIVE_SPACE_SYNTHESIS · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | New evidence could change quickly; bargaining/rent-sharing mechanisms under-studied | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Aldasoro reports higher wages at adopting firms; Denmark studies show little/no clear wage movement | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Europe / English-Danish | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Worker capture may differ by firm size, skill, seniority and bargaining power | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D1, D2, L-A, R-2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Credible causal study isolating AI productivity gain and wage pass-through | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE AS UNKNOWN / INTERPRETATION | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); D2 (DOMAIN); L-A (LENS); R-2 (LENS)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 16695b13411ba61df2a53fe45572cf03ba2711c51429e975bc43b1a2d6b5a52d.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1y7Iid5SaEnjKaPZ7ZsSSVj8dASVlSF8b; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 17 — LD02-HQ-C17” SHA-256cfbfeeccd9c96e95393948237514846428e7e68c956fa61cbc76bd8ff9e4fa39; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the locked R05 canonical ledger v1.0; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 1 authorizes completion of its existing canonical claim corpus. This is the first materialized version of this logical Claim, not a research update.
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD02-HQ-C17 cites "Cross-source synthesis of Humlum & Vestergaard"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 30–70 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8. Internal negative-space synthesis support: XS lines 250–324 and 389–404; no public Source selection or stamp input for XS.
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD02-HQ-C17 cites "Aldasoro et al."; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 71–110; B3 lines 192–247 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8. Internal negative-space synthesis support: XS lines 250–324 and 389–404; no public Source selection or stamp input for XS.
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD02-HQ-C17 cites "Danmarks Nationalbank"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B2 lines 485–534; PA lines 62–72 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8. Internal negative-space synthesis support: XS lines 250–324 and 389–404; no public Source selection or stamp input for XS.
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 17 — LD02-HQ-C17 cites "UK exposure evidence"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B2 lines 201–243 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8. Internal negative-space synthesis support: XS lines 250–324 and 389–404; no public Source selection or stamp input for XS.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C17--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C17--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-NATIONALBANK-WP-223-2026--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C17--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-KLEIN-TEESELINK-UK-2025--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C17--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.