Claim LD02-HQ-C11 (v1.0)
Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect.
Research opportunities this claim motivates
What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.
- How much of a firm's AI productivity gain reaches the wages of workers who stay?Instrumented AI adoption in over 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% without short-run employment loss, but the claim is not genAI-specific and does not license wage pass-through, which this design targets.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER, BROAD_AI) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / BROAD-AI QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- GenAI-specific effect; aggregate employment null; causal wage pass-through
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “International-institution working paper”)
- Institutional position
- BIS/EIB research
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD02-HQ-C11.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026” → SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
Read the originals
- SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325: open the original
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD02-HQ-C11 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | C — Firm-level reorganisation and labour demand | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026 | source_ids: SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | International-institution working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | BIS/EIB research | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | European non-financial firms with comparable US-peer information | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Matched firm data with AI adoption instrumented by comparable US-peer adoption | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | >12,000 firms; EIBIS–ORBIS | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Broad firm AI adoption, not GenAI-specific | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Instrumented non-adopters / lower predicted adoption | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Labour productivity +4%; no adverse short-run employment effect; benefits concentrate in medium/large firms and with complementary investment | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Short-run firm productivity and employment effect of AI adoption | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | GenAI-specific effect; aggregate employment null; causal wage pass-through | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Working paper; broad AI; firm-level short-run estimand | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Complements Nationalbank and task-RCT evidence; differing firm effects are context-specific | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | EU / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Smaller firms gain less; workers in adopting firms have higher wages but pass-through is not isolated | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D1, D2, L-B, L-C | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | GenAI-specific replication or later employment divergence | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / BROAD-AI QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER, BROAD_AI |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); D2 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); L-C (LENS)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 dcee92d479260f7384a5ba87db01949e4b10262e0f4455becdc17594c6466981.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1y7Iid5SaEnjKaPZ7ZsSSVj8dASVlSF8b; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 11 — LD02-HQ-C11” SHA-256b4eb18c8e37b88f83f6c4318be2704f6042a93ec5fdba8aabef7fd79021b3f0c; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the locked R05 canonical ledger v1.0; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 1 authorizes completion of its existing canonical claim corpus. This is the first materialized version of this logical Claim, not a research update.
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 11 — LD02-HQ-C11 cites "Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 71–110; B3 lines 192–247 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C11--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.