Claim LD02-HQ-C06 (v1.0)
US graduates from the most AI-exposed tenth of college majors experienced a 5 percentage-point decline in initial employment and a 13% decline in initial earnings relative to less-exposed majors after ChatGPT.
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER, EXPOSURE) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / EXPOSURE QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Long-run career scarring; universal graduate effect; independent replication of Tucker
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026
- Source type (field 7)
- WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Government working paper”)
- Institutional position
- Government research
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-09-25
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD02-HQ-C06--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026” → SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026--v1.0 — Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)
Read the originals
- SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026: open the original
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD02-HQ-C06 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | US graduates from the most AI-exposed tenth of college majors experienced a 5 percentage-point decline in initial employment and a 13% decline in initial earnings relative to less-exposed majors after ChatGPT. | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE | base_types: ESTIMATE |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | D — Hiring, entry and career ladders | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026 | source_ids: SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Government working paper | classes: WORKING_PAPER |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Government research | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | US graduates from PSEO partner institutions; entry outcomes after ChatGPT | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Event-study using major-level AI exposure | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | PSEO linked to LEHD administrative records | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Major-level AI exposure index | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Less-exposed majors / lower exposure deciles | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | Initial employment −5pp; initial earnings −13%; part of earnings loss reflects movement into lower-wage sectors such as restaurants/retail | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Entry penalty for graduates from highly exposed majors | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Long-run career scarring; universal graduate effect; independent replication of Tucker | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Very recent working paper; shares author/data infrastructure with Tucker; exposure not use; partner-institution sample | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Supports US entry-margin signal; Norway differs geographically | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | US / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | New graduates; sectoral downshifting | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | D2, D4b, L-A, R-1 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Later cohorts recover rapidly or revised PSEO estimates materially shrink the entry penalty | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / EXPOSURE QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER, EXPOSURE |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-09-25 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D2 (DOMAIN); D4b (SUB_AREA); L-A (LENS); R-1 (LENS)
Cited by Living Debate versions
- LD-02 v0.1 — HQ placement: SC-LD02-L04, SC-LD02-T08, SC-LD02-T09, SC-LD02-T10; facets: horizon=INITIAL_POST_GRADUATION
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 83fc0dc1f2e117cff05de8b8cdf18a940036f402132bdb703b28af2102275f71.
Frozen Drive-derived inputs
- R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID
1XS3OTYh1ZGBSlD3Dev0-5KtGds0abk1qX_24-8lVDqM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified 2026-09-25T18:38:36.597Z; block “ENTRY 06 — LD02-HQ-C06” SHA-2561924402a17b9e926b6838b047fd4aeb0dc386068759672765314776b8d57e195; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0. - SocioLens — Proof Source Registry v0.4 (v0.4) — Drive ID
1_-GLmj6PfetWDQH2KldMv-61vmSmzdAyyxgZZZCFnbE; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified 2026-09-27T19:04:00.374Z; block “REGISTRY ENTRY SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026” SHA-2566a800685626da9a06e0ea97f78fe30beeeb6c2241ad877c19321615d32dd4caf; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT PROOF SOURCE REGISTRY.”; frozen fixturefixtures/frozen/proof-source-registry-v0.4.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 06 — LD02-HQ-C06 cites "Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026"; Builder identification: the cited work is Proof Source Registry v0.4 identity SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026 (canonical label "Orr, Tucker & Warren, “Graduating into Disruption,” US Census CES-WP-26-56, September 2026"), Registry-linked to this logical Claim; SocioLens record v1.0 is its sole record.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-ORR-TUCKER-WARREN-2026--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record.