Claim LD02-HQ-C02 (v1.0)

In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2%.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (SCOPE) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH SCOPE QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: Global aggregate null; no hiring effect; no task or occupational change
Source (field 6, as printed): Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026
Source type (field 7): WORKING_PAPER (as printed: “Academic working paper”)
Institutional position: Independent academic
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): RAPIDLY_MATURING (as printed: “RAPIDLY MATURING”)
Recorded date: 2026-09-25
Currentness / correction: This is not the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD02-HQ-C02--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

NEWER VERSION EXISTS: the current version is LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1. This version is explicitly superseded by LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1.

Versions:v1.0 v1.1 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026” → SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

Read the originals

SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777: open the original

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD02-HQ-C02	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In 11 AI-exposed Danish occupations, Humlum and Vestergaard estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours two years after ChatGPT, ruling out effects larger than 2%.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	E — Wages, hours, employment and transitions	—
5	MATURITY	RAPIDLY MATURING	states: RAPIDLY_MATURING
6	SOURCE	Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777
7	SOURCE TYPE	Academic working paper	classes: WORKING_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Independent academic	—
9	SCOPE	Denmark; 11 AI-exposed occupations; roughly two-year post-ChatGPT horizon	—
10	DESIGN	Adoption surveys linked to administrative labour records; difference-in-differences	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Approximately 25,000 workers / 7,000 workplaces linked to Danish administrative records	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	ChatGPT and workplace chatbots, including in-house systems	—
13	COMPARATOR	Adopters/users vs relevant non-adopters/non-users under study design	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Earnings and recorded-hours effects are close to zero; effects larger than 2% are ruled out over the study horizon; tasks nevertheless reorganise	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Short-run incumbent earnings/hours effect	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Global aggregate null; no hiring effect; no task or occupational change	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Denmark; selected exposed occupations; self-reported adoption/use; pre-agentic horizon	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Consistent with broad short-run nulls; Nationalbank 2026 shows different firm-hiring estimand	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Denmark / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Early-career earnings/hours null also reported; occupational transitions occur	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D2, L-A, L-B, L-C, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Later waves showing material divergence in earnings/hours	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH SCOPE QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: SCOPE
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D2 (DOMAIN); L-A (LENS); L-B (LENS); L-C (LENS); R-1 (LENS)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 299d7de3e6a1be4bf93fbf331cfdbacce407e2866f29a76cbed32a6046bcafbd.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1y7Iid5SaEnjKaPZ7ZsSSVj8dASVlSF8b; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 02 — LD02-HQ-C02” SHA-256 906dfd3b32f870bbedb6db2115bddc141378c9db26f91858cc0e29a1d8f44d8d; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the locked R05 canonical ledger v1.0; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 1 authorizes completion of its existing canonical claim corpus. This is the first materialized version of this logical Claim, not a research update.
CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD02-HQ-C02--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 02 — LD02-HQ-C02 cites "Humlum & Vestergaard, “Still Waters, Rapid Currents,” NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 30–70 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-HUMLUM-VESTERGAARD-NBER-33777--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C02--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.