Claim LD01-SL-C33 (v1.0)
The Bank for International Settlements wrote in June 2024 that adoption of general-purpose technologies “typically follows a J-curve: it is slow at first, but eventually accelerates,” that AI shows features suggesting “an even steeper J-curve,” and that if AI is a true general-purpose technology that raises “total factor productivity in all industries to a similar extent,” “the demand for labour is set to increase across the board.”
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- INTERPRETATION (as printed: “INTERPRETATION”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (INSTITUTIONAL_POSITION) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- A measurement of productivity effects
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III
- Source type (field 7)
- POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING (as printed: “International financial institution report”)
- Institutional position
- International financial institution (central banks’ cooperation body)
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-16
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD01-SL-C33--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.
This pinned version is also the current version.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III” → SRC-SL-BIS-AER-2024-CHAPTER-III--v1.0 — Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III; class POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD01-SL-C33 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | The Bank for International Settlements wrote in June 2024 that adoption of general-purpose technologies “typically follows a J-curve: it is slow at first, but eventually accelerates,” that AI shows features suggesting “an even steeper J-curve,” and that if AI is a true general-purpose technology that raises “total factor productivity in all industries to a similar extent,” “the demand for labour is set to increase across the board.” | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | INTERPRETATION | base_types: INTERPRETATION |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | C — Infrastructure, capital and legal category | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III | source_ids: SRC-SL-BIS-AER-2024-CHAPTER-III |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | International financial institution report | classes: POLICY_RESEARCH_OR_MONITORING |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | International financial institution (central banks’ cooperation body) | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | Global economy; AI and generative AI as of mid-2024 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Policy analysis of AI’s economic effects for central banks | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | Not applicable | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | Generative AI and large language models in general | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Past general-purpose technologies such as electricity and the internet | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | A conditional expectation: a steep J-curve of adoption and, if AI is a true general-purpose technology, rising labour demand across the board; if AI instead makes some tasks obsolete, some workers are displaced (Graph 8); the report notes substantial uncertainty about long-term capabilities | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | What a general-purpose-technology reading of AI implies for the economy | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | A measurement of productivity effects | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Mid-2024 vintage; the general-purpose-technology status is stated as conditional; adoption figures cited concern use, not productivity | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | LD01-SL-C14, LD01-SL-C15 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | Global / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Not analysed in this claim | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-01, T4, D2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Productivity data showing no acceleration over a long period, or effects confined to a few sectors | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: INSTITUTIONAL_POSITION |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-16 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D2 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 6f6eea5487153f7cb625f719ebe0507ef2fdefbe915c800719a69139003b7b2f.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C33 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 33 — LD01-SL-C33” SHA-256
95f5e685946462ca0cd2b9694bd9a9f77a0d61c4f56b19e7fd960851498cd12d; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C33--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C33 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C33 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-BIS-AER-2024-CHAPTER-III--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 33 — LD01-SL-C33 cites "Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-BIS-AER-2024-CHAPTER-III--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Bank for International Settlements, “Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks,” Annual Economic Report 2024, chapter III".