Claim LD01-SL-C24 (v1.0)

After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more.

Provenance and status

Claim type: ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status: ELIGIBLE (SOURCE_POSITION) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH SOURCE-POSITION QUALIFIER”)
Verification state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
Does not license: A claim about agency in deployment
Source (field 6, as printed): METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026
Source type (field 7): INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (as printed: “Research nonprofit post”)
Institutional position: Research nonprofit (METR), reporting on its own measure
Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity): EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
Recorded date: 2026-10-16
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.

Version

Pinned version v1.0 (entry LD01-SL-C24--v1.0) — this page never floats to newer evidence.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions:v1.0 · current

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026” → SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0 — METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026; class INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (explicit public provenance pin)

All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD01-SL-C24	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B — Evidence that could tell the accounts apart	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026	source_ids: SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29
7	SOURCE TYPE	Research nonprofit post	classes: INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Research nonprofit (METR), reporting on its own measure	—
9	SCOPE	METR’s task suite as revised in January 2026; models to late 2025	—
10	DESIGN	Re-estimation after changing the task suite (228 tasks; more long tasks) and the evaluation software, for 14 of 33 models; the model sets before and after overlap but are not identical	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	228 tasks	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Frontier models to late 2025, including Claude Opus 4.5 and GPT-5.1-codex-max	—
13	COMPARATOR	The earlier version of the suite	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Post-2023 doubling time 130.8 days [107, 161] against 165.3 days [129, 211]; METR says the new estimate lies within the earlier confidence interval; most long tasks use estimated rather than measured human times	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	How stable the time-horizon measure is	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A claim about agency in deployment	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	A self-report by the organization that owns the measure; web page as served on 16 October 2026; Anthropic models, made by the developer of the model that drafted this debate, are among those measured	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	LD01-SL-C23	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Not applicable / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Not analysed in this claim	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-01, T4, D4b	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	An independent replication of the trend on a different task suite	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH SOURCE-POSITION QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: SOURCE_POSITION
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-16	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D4b (SUB_AREA)

Cited by Living Debate versions

LD-01 v0.1

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 ae06b6dd84543bfa8ff067f19fdbff36817a134d39660d3cc054a3fa6dbdfcd5.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 24 — LD01-SL-C24” SHA-256 25f139cbf4ccb4b7abc8fd68711cfe260a56127c27019afa62dc18c1a0b218e3; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C24--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 24 — LD01-SL-C24 cites "METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026".