Claim LD01-SL-C14 (v1.0)
Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock conclude that language models “exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies,” estimating that about 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected and about 19% at least half; they “do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline.”
Provenance and status
- Claim type
- ESTIMATE + INTERPRETATION (as printed: “ESTIMATE / INTERPRETATION”)
- Publication status
- ELIGIBLE (INSTITUTIONAL_POSITION) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION QUALIFIER”)
- Verification state
- CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT) (as printed: “CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT”; verified by: UNKNOWN)
- Does not license
- Adoption, productivity or employment effects; the authors say exposure does not guarantee them
- Source (field 6, as printed)
- Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023
- Source type (field 7)
- PREPRINT (as printed: “Preprint (working paper; a journal version was published in Science)”)
- Institutional position
- Mixed: AI developer (three of four authors at OpenAI) and independent academic (University of Pennsylvania)
- Maturity (claim evidence / publication maturity)
- EMERGING (as printed: “EMERGING”)
- Recorded date
- 2026-10-16
- Currentness / correction
- This is the current version. No correction or concern relation is recorded on its Sources.
Version
Current version v1.0, resolved through the explicit current pointer CLAIM--LD01-SL-C14.
Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)
- “Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023” → SRC-SL-ELOUNDOU-ET-AL-ARXIV-2303-10130--v1.0 — Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)
All 25 canonical Claim fields (raw values and normalized values)
| # | Canonical field | Canonical value (verbatim) | Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLAIM ID | LD01-SL-C14 | — |
| 2 | PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM | Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock conclude that language models “exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies,” estimating that about 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected and about 19% at least half; they “do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline.” | — |
| 3 | CLAIM TYPE | ESTIMATE / INTERPRETATION | base_types: ESTIMATE, INTERPRETATION |
| 4 | RESEARCH STRAND | A — What each account says generative AI is, and what it predicts | — |
| 5 | MATURITY | EMERGING | states: EMERGING |
| 6 | SOURCE | Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023 | source_ids: SRC-SL-ELOUNDOU-ET-AL-ARXIV-2303-10130 |
| 7 | SOURCE TYPE | Preprint (working paper; a journal version was published in Science) | classes: PREPRINT |
| 8 | INSTITUTIONAL POSITION | Mixed: AI developer (three of four authors at OpenAI) and independent academic (University of Pennsylvania) | — |
| 9 | SCOPE | United States; occupations and tasks in O*NET; exposure as of 2023 | — |
| 10 | DESIGN | Task-exposure rubric applied by human annotators and by GPT-4 | — |
| 11 | SAMPLE / DATASET | O*NET tasks for US occupations | — |
| 12 | MODEL / TOOL / VERSION | GPT-3.5- and GPT-4-era models; GPT-4 also used as an annotator | — |
| 13 | COMPARATOR | Tasks performed without language models | — |
| 14 | MAIN RESULT | About 80% of workers with at least 10% of tasks exposed; about 19% with at least half; the authors say the paper presents evidence for two of the three criteria for a general-purpose technology (pervasiveness and complementary innovation) | — |
| 15 | INFERENTIAL TARGET | Technical exposure of work to language models | — |
| 16 | DOES NOT LICENSE | Adoption, productivity or employment effects; the authors say exposure does not guarantee them | — |
| 17 | VERIFICATION STATE | CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT | state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN |
| 18 | LIMITATIONS | Read in arXiv version 5 (21 August 2023), labelled a working paper; the Science version was not compared; three authors work for the developer of the models assessed, and one of two annotators is that developer’s model; the human annotators, who include the authors, are a group the paper says “is not occupationally diverse” | — |
| 19 | CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES | Adoption measured: LD01-SL-C15; general-purpose technology in official analysis: LD01-SL-C33 | — |
| 20 | GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE | US / English | — |
| 21 | DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER | Higher-wage jobs are more exposed | — |
| 22 | R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS | LD-01, T4, D2 | — |
| 23 | WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM? | Exposure scores that fail to predict later adoption or task change | — |
| 24 | PUBLICATION STATUS | ELIGIBLE WITH INSTITUTIONAL-POSITION QUALIFIER | state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: INSTITUTIONAL_POSITION |
| 25 | RECORDED DATE | 2026-10-16 | — |
Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D2 (DOMAIN)
Cited by Living Debate versions
Research-of-record provenance
Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 753b79bb1093f3015ae4a1b8b0719872624e18d4dc848b4901d6e559e51d05fc.
Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)
- SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C14 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 14 — LD01-SL-C14” SHA-256
5afaf58f94676f2e5247efce751955b2c76ea38b9df4255b213afaa73536fa3f; fixturefixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C14--v1.0.
Builder decisions (not Drive data)
- VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C14 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
- CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C14 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
- FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-ELOUNDOU-ET-AL-ARXIV-2303-10130--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 14 — LD01-SL-C14 cites "Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
- SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-ELOUNDOU-ET-AL-ARXIV-2303-10130--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” arXiv:2303.10130, 2023".