urn:uuid:17c55031-d004-54b9-bb1b-ec23785bf392 New versions of this debate, revisions of its claims, Radar updates and research opportunities. 2026-10-16T00:00:00Z SocioLens urn:uuid:5ec1f2c4-a4cf-58b4-b044-3d7fa41c9eaf 2026-10-16T00:00:00Z

In China's register of generative-AI services, where every launched application must display the filed service or model it uses, how concentrated is applications' dependence on a few base models, and on a fixed set of test cases are the errors, refusals and biased outputs of applications that share a base model more strongly correlated than those of applications built on different models, beyond the correlation already found between models from different providers?

urn:uuid:ed438383-06c2-5a93-99ac-519c1febda04 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

What changed: The claim now reports, beside the OpenRouter/a16z figure, the lower open-source token share that Demirer, Fradkin, Tadelis & Peng (NBER Working Paper 34608, December 2025) report from OpenRouter data, and cites that paper as a second source. The OpenRouter/a16z figure is unchanged. Why: A literature check on 13 October 2026 found a second analysis of the same platform, by academic authors with Microsoft and Amazon affiliations, that reports about 25% open-source share by December 2025, not about one-third. Version 1.0 cited only the platform's own report, so a reader could take one-third as settled. The figures were read from the NBER paper by AI agents, not by a person, to the same standard as the rest of this ledger (primary-text reading by AI, no named human expert).

urn:uuid:60cbdde9-8740-576d-a3bd-eb373c5c0fb1 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The verdict changed from "No study found doing the core design" to "Related work exists" because related work turned up; the question stands.

urn:uuid:140a131a-fd25-5ce0-97af-2d860f5ca643 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:73cb4618-5484-5342-b61a-5f4e24096a2d 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:5bc96ec1-ca8f-510d-a0d6-10925ccf1628 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Tightened after a test reading of the opportunity pages on 13 October 2026 (an AI stand-in run of the founder test, not an outside reader) found that the page did not show the procurement data exist in a usable form, the first thing a supervisor would ask. The data section now says what the open records contain (machine-readable notices from Contracts Finder and Find a Tender; G-Cloud sales with supplier and customer names, currency to be checked) and what they lack (the hosting provider behind a reseller), and the design now starts with a sample check of how often the provider can be identified, with freedom-of-information requests as the fallback. The question, the literature check and the verdict are unchanged.

urn:uuid:67023009-775d-5032-94e1-7e4ffbf2cbfb 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:7804cac6-5780-508d-8686-89089d029140 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:d410c1f1-4c41-5c52-a74f-9d147af7e55e 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand.

urn:uuid:01ec8a77-1f88-5540-a9b1-b40afe377f07 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

Tightened after a test reading of the opportunity pages on 13 October 2026 (an AI stand-in run of the founder test, not an outside reader) judged it descriptive and asked whether the data exist. The question now uses a fixed project list and the projects' own announced dates; the page now says plainly that this is a descriptive tracking study; and the design starts with a five-project pilot that measures how many layer cells public sources can fill, narrowing to the disclosed layers if needed. The literature check and verdict are unchanged.

urn:uuid:28b68964-1cfb-59ca-ae13-cc73c098167c 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

Among US academic teams that received National AI Research Resource (NAIRR) pilot allocations, compared with similar teams that did not, does access change reliance on proprietary model APIs, industry co-authorship and the share of compute-intensive work, and how much of the access delivered depends on private-sector in-kind resources?

urn:uuid:3ba8639f-f105-59d0-abb6-3c0433d4308d 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

How does the open-weight share of language-model use estimated from OpenRouter compare with shares estimated from other observable sources (other inference marketplaces and hosts, model downloads, self-hosting tool registries, and a survey of organisations' production deployments), and which population does each source actually represent?

urn:uuid:7542628c-a65a-56a6-b367-4596e6acc0c3 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

When UK public-sector cloud contracts came up for renewal before and after the 2024 egress-fee waivers and the CMA cloud investigation, how often did buyers move workloads to a different provider or add a second one, and did switching differ for workloads tied to Microsoft software licensing?

urn:uuid:cfc3744f-5cf8-50cc-9c5f-029ea1a7159d 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

Among AI startups that raised money from Amazon, Microsoft or Google (directly or through their venture arms), compared with similar startups funded by independent investors, how much more likely are they to build on the investing firm's cloud and models, and does that tie persist or loosen in later funding rounds?

urn:uuid:80f6cb72-490b-5330-83b9-460f5e7d3cb2 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

For language-model inference since 2023, how much of the fall in the price of a fixed capability level reflects lower serving costs (hardware and algorithmic efficiency) and how much reflects narrowing margins under competition, estimated by comparing prices for identical open-weight models across competing hosts with their estimated serving costs and with proprietary models of similar capability?

urn:uuid:308e6514-aff2-538a-89d4-7ddc2f254162 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

For announced public or sovereign AI compute projects in the EU and the Gulf, how many reach operation on schedule, and at each layer (chips, memory, data-centre operator, cloud software, models) which suppliers and which jurisdictions does the operating project depend on, compared with what was announced?

urn:uuid:e63ba49c-4f34-5768-83c9-9cff69c9b5b7 2026-09-25T00:00:00Z

Where is power concentrated across the AI stack, through which mechanisms does that concentration matter, and under what conditions can firms, states, researchers or publics reduce dependency?